We Mean Business
Here we are in our second lockdown on the day before Thanksgiving. For better or worse, I think we're going to see a lot of folks disregarding the rules. It's beginning to look like people are deciding for themselves they are just going to take their chances with COVID-19.
That might prove disastrous if experts are right that COVID-19 is at its most pernicious in confined spaces where people are in close contact. But everyone knows that. And I expect a lot of people to celebrate Thanksgiving as they normally would. And I think the chances of police arresting entire families on Thanksgiving Day is just about zero. Didn't any of our leaders see Jurassic Park? (I'm not even going to ask whether they read the book). It's not just a monster movie. It's a parable about attempting to control uncontrollable biological forces. Complex systems resist control because they are too complex to control. So don't kid yourself thinking you can control it. In real life, just substitute germs for dinosaurs. "Life finds a way." "John, the kind of control you're attempting simply is…it's not possible. If there is one thing the history of evolution has taught us it's that life will not be contained. Life breaks free, it expands to new territories and crashes through barriers, painfully, maybe even dangerously, but, uh…well, there it is." That's a pretty good description of COVID-19's spread despite efforts by billions of people all over the world. The illusion of control. John Hammond : When we have control again-- Ellie Sattler : You never had control! That's the illusion! Our leaders have adopted a strategy based on controlling the uncontrollable. An impossible plan is not a good plan. It's as if John Hammond were running large parts of America. We do have one thing going for us, though. As Otto von Bismarck put it: “God has a special providence for fools, drunkards, and the United States of America.” May he be right once again. As for me and my house, we're hunkering down for Thanksgiving. We're going to try to hang in there and avoid this disease until the soon to arrive vaccines become available. We can't control what other people do or what our leaders do, but we can control ourselves. Stay safe out there, everyone. Control what you can control in your own life.
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rI've developed a simple-minded but seemingly effective way of using the last few days of campaigning to detect where the action will be on Election Day (two days now, WOO-HOO!). I've counted up all the states the presidential candidates and their running mates have visited since the last debate. Their final visits should indicate where they think they are close and with a bit more effort can win.
The campaigns spend millions upon millions of dollars on data to help them make good decisions. I suspect that they believe their internal polls much more than publicly available polls. Public polls might be skewed to encourage friendly voters and discourage opposing voters. Internal polls need to be brutally honest so that the campaigns can spend their time and money most wisely. That's my theory anyway. In 2000, the Bush campaign canceled its final weekend events to concentrate on Florida. Florida was thought to be safely in the Bush column and Jeb Bush was the governor so why would they do that? Apparently, they knew it was going to be extremely close, which we all know now it was. It was also the decisive state. It's possible that last second shift in schedule put W over the top. In 2016, I had an introductory government class for Northwood. It was in a four week format, with the middle weekend featuring a Friday, Saturday, Sunday in person session, eight hours per day. It fell on the weekend before the election so I had the students count up all the campaign stops for the candidates. We threw in President Obama as well because he was making a lot of speeches as well. The results showed that the Republicans outworked the Democrats by a mile. We found a lot of stops on both sides in Florida, Ohio and North Carolina. That was to be expected as those are historically the closest of the swing states. However, the Republicans made a lot of stops in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Apparently they thought they could win them and thought it worth the effort. We know how that turned out. So here are my results on the Sunday before the election. I counted each state's visits by all four candidates. Multiple rallies in the same state on the same day count as one. The dates run from October 23, the Friday after the final debate, up to Monday, November 2. Here's my list of Top 5 campaign destinations. President Trump
Trump visited 7 other states once each. Vice President Pence
Republican Candidate Total Visits
Vice President Biden
OK, that's six but it's my blog so there. Senator Harris
Democratic Candidates Total Visits
Combined Total Visits for Both Campaigns
Georgia gets an honorable mention with (4). What does all this suggest? The conventional wisdom is that Pennsylvania will decide the election. It appears the candidates agree with that assessment. Both Democrats will spend Monday in Pennsylvania. The biggest surprise to me is the Republican attention paid to North Carolina. It is extremely close and would be of immense help to President Trump if he wins there, which probably explains the Republican effort there. Only Harris visited NC on the Democratic side, but only once. Also a bit surprising is the last minute blitz in Michigan by both sides. Public polls show Biden with a substantial lead in Michigan, but neither side is acting like it's in the bag for him. President Trump makes a final campaign stop Monday afternoon in Traverse City. It's really pretty up there this time of year, but I suspect he's not flying in to watch the leaves change colors. After leaving Michigan, the president wraps up in Kenosha, Wisconsin. The Republicans will end up with four recent stops in Wisconsin against only one total for the Biden campaign. If the Democrats lose the presidential election, it's possible that following HRC's "don't worry, be happy about Wisconsin" approach will again be to blame. A cynic might suggest that President Trump's final stop in Kenosha is to throw a spotlight on the fact that riots can break out in small cities once best known for how boring they are. The cynic would likely be right. The even more cynical might suggest it's the smart play from the Trump perspective. So there it is. Keep an eye on NC, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Fortunately, these important states are all in the Eastern or Central time zone, which gives the best chance of not having to stay up all night to find out what happened. Cheers! |
Christopher J. EngeEducator. Entrepreneur. Attorney. Author Archives
January 2022
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